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Reducing operational risk in vintage plastic distribution systems

 

Ernest Lever, Yongming Liu, Yiming Deng

Papers # 2016 Berlin

This collaborative program will provide an integrated set of quantitative tools that will provide a structured approach to reducing operational risk in vintage plastic distribution systems susceptible to Slow Crack Growth failures. A novel endoscopic structured light scanning tool will be developed and prototyped for internal inspection of small diameter plastic pipe. The data generated by the tool will be properly reduced to essential parameters to be synthesized with additional available system information including external conditions, inspection and leak records, historic data, and subject matter expertise into a fitness for service evaluation. This assessment will include a probabilistic estimate of the remaining effective lifetime of individual segments of vintage plastic pipe and a yes/no determination of whether a short-term pressure test is capable of validating the maximum defect size in the system. The Bayesian network methods employed are ideally suited to evaluating interacting threats, investigating root causes, and predicting the effect of mitigation strategies based on conditional probabilities calculated from available data.

Project DTPH5615T0007 “Slow Crack Growth Evaluation of Vintage Polyethylene Pipes” sponsored by DOT PHMSA has been initiated. The objective of the project is to develop an integrated set of quantitative tools that will provide a structured approach to reducing operational risk in vintage plastic, such as Aldyl A, distribution systems susceptible to Slow Crack Growth failures. The tools will provide a probabilistic estimate of the remaining effective lifetime of individual segments of vintage plastic pipe and a yes/no determination of whether a short-term pressure test is capable of validating the maximum defect size in the system. This collaborative program will provide an integrated set of quantitative tools that will provide a structured approach to reducing operational risk in vintage plastic distribution systems susceptible to Slow Crack Growth failures.

A novel endoscopic structured light scanning tool will be developed and prototyped for internal inspection of small diameter plastic pipe. The data generated by the tool will be properly reduced to essential parameters to be synthesized with additional available system information including external conditions, inspection and leak records, historic data, and subject matter expertise into a fitness for service evaluation. 

This assessment will include a probabilistic estimate of the remaining effective lifetime of individual segments of vintage plastic pipe and a yes/no determination of whether a short-term pressure test is capable of validating the maximum defect size in the system. The Bayesian network methods employed are ideally suited to evaluating interacting threats, investigating root causes, and predicting the effect of mitigation strategies based on conditional probabilities calculated from available data. This paper will provide more detail on the intended scope of work as well as a current status report.

Related keywords : Slow Crack Growth, Aldyl A, Risk, Fitness for Service, Inspection, Vintage Plastic Pipeline.
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